Carnegie Moscow Center
Russia’s association with Lukashenko’s crackdown may persuade Belarusians that it is impossible to be a pro-Russian democrat: that one can only be one or the other. Support for authoritarianism is going out of fashion in Belarus; pro-Russianness may, too.
Security in the Baltic Sea region is a major element in the European politico-military landscape. The region demands special attention as it is where NATO and Russia are direct neighbors, sharing land borders. Where does the region fit in Russia’s foreign and security policy? How to preserve a minimum of security in the region? Join Ambassador Vygaudas Ušackas and Dmitri Trenin to explore these and other issues.
The Belarusian revolution is far from over, and there are at least three scenarios in which the EU and Russia won’t be able to keep their differences over Belarus from escalating from the current moderate competition into an open geopolitical crisis like that seen in Ukraine.
President Sandu’s key imperative will be to foster a functional majority in parliament that produces a reformist government. But the current parliamentary configuration is not conducive to a major reforms push.
In the event of a managed transition of power in the next year or so, it’s military men who will supervise that transition and help to select a successor—who looks increasingly likely to be one of them.
To anyone who has followed U.S. domestic politics and foreign policy for the past four years—and especially the last two years—of the Trump administration, the answer will be unambiguously “yes.”
Nearly two months after Belarus’s contested presidential election, Alexander Lukashenko continues to cling to power. This episode of the Carnegie Moscow Center English-language podcast examines how the situation there may unfold.
From an overripe apple that looked sure to drop into Moscow’s lap all on its own, the Belarusian regime is increasingly coming to resemble a toxic asset that’s as difficult to engage with as it is to get rid of.
Courted by Alexander Lukashenko since the 2000s, China has gradually expanded its presence, economic and otherwise, in Belarus. However, its strengthening position there has not come at Russia’s expense, and, as unrest spreads following last month’s presidential election, there is little reason to expect China to step in to rescue the embattled president.
Massive and persistent, protests in the usually quiet country of Belarus have taken the world by surprise and suddenly brought the country to the centre of Europe's attention.